Mercados de predicción
Qué esperan los economistas (Trading Economics) vs qué probabilidad le pone el mercado de apuestas (Polymarket / Kalshi), lado a lado, para los eventos macro de EE.UU.
⚠️ Esto es contexto de análisis, no una señal de compra. Un mercado bien calibrado no da ventaja por sí solo: mayor probabilidad ≠ mayor valor esperado. Úsalo para ver dónde el mercado está confiado o dividido y decidir TÚ.
Mercados de predicción · Fed / Tasas
| Fuente | Pregunta | Prob. "sí" | Lectura | Volumen | Cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?</a> | 94% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 24,147,249 | 29/10/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?</a> | 7% | Mercado confiado (no) | 16,819,444 | 29/10/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324030" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?</a> | 0% | Mercado confiado (no) | 12,676,447 | 29/10/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324033" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?</a> | 0% | Mercado confiado (no) | 10,964,607 | 29/10/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?</a> | 0% | Mercado confiado (no) | 10,068,725 | 29/10/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?</a> | 75% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 1,196,811 | 09/12/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another Fed rate hike in 2026?</a> | 77% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 1,069,826 | 10/12/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808634" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 1,064,513 | 09/12/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?</a> | 22% | Mercado confiado (no) | 1,050,491 | 09/12/2026 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 72% | Inclinado | 94,783 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 3% | Mercado confiado (no) | 77,995 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 11% | Mercado confiado (no) | 73,571 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 2% | Mercado confiado (no) | 53,550 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27SEP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?</a> | 85% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 32,835 | 15/09/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 6% | Mercado confiado (no) | 32,790 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 15% | Mercado confiado (no) | 29,658 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 16% | Mercado confiado (no) | 28,532 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 23,146 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 57% | Muy dividido | 22,504 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 59% | Muy dividido | 22,379 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?</a> | 6% | Mercado confiado (no) | 22,170 | 09/06/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 3% | Mercado confiado (no) | 20,196 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 28% | Inclinado | 19,936 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2027 meeting?</a> | 3% | Mercado confiado (no) | 16,215 | 09/06/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27SEP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 15,825 | 15/09/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 2% | Mercado confiado (no) | 14,086 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 5% | Mercado confiado (no) | 13,192 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 11,501 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 89% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 11,404 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 58% | Muy dividido | 10,055 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 35% | Inclinado | 7,679 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 33% | Inclinado | 7,415 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 6,677 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 6,455 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 11% | Mercado confiado (no) | 6,447 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 2% | Mercado confiado (no) | 5,602 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?</a> | 25% | Mercado confiado (no) | 5,596 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 25% | Mercado confiado (no) | 5,013 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 10% | Mercado confiado (no) | 4,288 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?</a> | 62% | Inclinado | 3,147 | 09/06/2027 |
Eventos macro relacionados (Trading Economics)
| Fecha (UTC) | Tipo | Evento | Esperado | Real | Anterior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2026 18:00 UTC | Decisión Fed | Federal Funds Rate | 4 | — | 4 |
| 28/10/2026 18:00 UTC | Decisión Fed | FOMC Statement | — | — | — |
| 28/10/2026 18:30 UTC | Decisión Fed | FOMC Press Conference | — | — | — |
| 30/10/2026 16:00 UTC | Decisión Fed | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | — | — | — |
| 30/10/2026 16:30 UTC | Decisión Fed | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | — | — | — |
Nota: el "esperado" de TE es un pronóstico puntual; la probabilidad del mercado es P(resultado). No son la misma magnitud — por eso se muestran lado a lado, sin un número de "divergencia" que dé falsa precisión.