Mercados de predicción
Qué esperan los economistas (Trading Economics) vs qué probabilidad le pone el mercado de apuestas (Polymarket / Kalshi), lado a lado, para los eventos macro de EE.UU.
⚠️ Esto es contexto de análisis, no una señal de compra. Un mercado bien calibrado no da ventaja por sí solo: mayor probabilidad ≠ mayor valor esperado. Úsalo para ver dónde el mercado está confiado o dividido y decidir TÚ.
Mercados de predicción · Fed / Tasas
| Fuente | Pregunta | Prob. "sí" | Lectura | Volumen | Cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?</a> | 1% | Mercado confiado (no) | 9,538,409 | 16/09/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?</a> | 72% | Inclinado | 8,370,126 | 16/09/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?</a> | 29% | Inclinado | 7,886,590 | 16/09/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fed rate hike in 2026?</a> | 51% | Muy dividido | 7,644,672 | 09/12/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?</a> | 85% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 7,303,282 | 31/12/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?</a> | 0% | Mercado confiado (no) | 5,720,761 | 16/09/2026 |
| Polymarket | <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?</a> | 0% | Mercado confiado (no) | 5,449,796 | 16/09/2026 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 7% | Mercado confiado (no) | 77,370 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 11% | Mercado confiado (no) | 32,615 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 2% | Mercado confiado (no) | 31,789 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 14% | Mercado confiado (no) | 25,404 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 30% | Inclinado | 22,527 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 13% | Mercado confiado (no) | 22,505 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?</a> | 6% | Mercado confiado (no) | 20,705 | 09/06/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 34% | Inclinado | 15,707 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 63% | Inclinado | 15,648 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 42% | Muy dividido | 15,315 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27SEP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?</a> | 3% | Mercado confiado (no) | 15,055 | 15/09/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?</a> | 60% | Muy dividido | 12,622 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 11% | Mercado confiado (no) | 11,370 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 7% | Mercado confiado (no) | 11,023 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 42% | Muy dividido | 10,582 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 17% | Mercado confiado (no) | 10,252 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 7% | Mercado confiado (no) | 9,866 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 83% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 7,813 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 83% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 7,274 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27OCT" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?</a> | 16% | Mercado confiado (no) | 7,170 | 27/10/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27JAN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?</a> | 64% | Inclinado | 6,451 | 27/01/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27JUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?</a> | 78% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 6,374 | 28/07/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 83% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 5,994 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 82% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 5,900 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 71% | Inclinado | 5,838 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 75% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 5,339 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 92% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 4,845 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?</a> | 93% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 4,731 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?</a> | 66% | Inclinado | 4,717 | 17/03/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27JAN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?</a> | 15% | Mercado confiado (no) | 3,568 | 27/01/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27APR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?</a> | 89% | Mercado confiado (sí) | 3,469 | 28/04/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-27DEC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?</a> | 52% | Muy dividido | 3,453 | 08/12/2027 |
| Kalshi | <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27MAR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?</a> | 54% | Muy dividido | 3,416 | 17/03/2027 |
Eventos macro relacionados (Trading Economics)
| Fecha (UTC) | Tipo | Evento | Esperado | Real | Anterior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2026 18:00 UTC | Decisión Fed | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
| 20/08/2026 12:30 UTC | Decisión Fed | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 24.3 | — | 41.4 |
Nota: el "esperado" de TE es un pronóstico puntual; la probabilidad del mercado es P(resultado). No son la misma magnitud — por eso se muestran lado a lado, sin un número de "divergencia" que dé falsa precisión.